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Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Oil Forecasts - Far From an Exact Science

From CSMonitor.com comes an article that looks at the spotty record of the International Energy Agency when it comes to their predictions.  An excerpt:
Now, the IEA tells us that a "revolutionary" new technology called hydraulic fracturing--actually, a newly deployed variant called high-volume slick-water hydraulic fracturing--is going to cause what it calls a "supply shock" that spells ample and rising oil supplies. But, despite years of such drilling in the United States--which the agency says will be the center of this "shock"--world oil prices remain near all-time highs as measured by the average daily price. And, world oil production (crude plus lease condensate) has only occasionally bounced above 75 mbpd in the last seven years before retreating downward.
Perhaps the IEA means that using these new techniques to unlock so-called light tight oil deposits beyond the United States will bring about this supply shock? Nope. The report states specifically that over the forecast period through 2018, the IEA does not expect significant development in other countries of these deposits using the new type of hydraulic fracturing.
Read the entire article by clicking here.  There are some valid points to consider when it comes to some of the projections made regarding the shale boom.

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