Thursday, July 12, 2012

As Natural Gas Prices Increase, Will Chesapeake's Stock Continue to Increase Too?

From the Motley Fool:
The price of natural gas sharply rose in the past few weeks and could pass the $3 mark in the very near future. The low prices of natural gas were one of the reasons (according to many analysts) for the tumble of Chesapeake Energy Corporation's (NYSE: CHK)stock price. Will the recent recovery of natural gas prices be enough to help rally Chesapeake's stock price. Let's examine the recent Macro changes in the oil and natural gas markets and the recent news that could explain the recent rise in Chesapeake's stock price.
NG and Chesapeake 
Natural gas rose in the past couple of weeks by nearly 30.8% (from June 11th up to date) andUnited States Natural Gas (NYSEMKT: UNG) also rose by a very similar rate. 
Chesapeake's stock price rose during the same time by nearly 11.5%. Chesapeake's officials blamed the low price of natural gas for the company's financial troubles. From the stand point of the company's stock price, the linear correlation between the stock price and natural gas (spot) daily percent change was 0.26. This means that nearly 7% of Chesapeake's volatility could be explained by the movement of natural gas. 
The chart below shows the relationship between Chesapeake, U.S's second largest natural gas company, and Henry Hub during the year (up to date).

Despite the recent rally of natural gas, they are still very low for the season and are currently nearly $1.6 lower than last year. This means that the current low rates of NG aren't helping the company and the recent rally won't be enough for Chesapeake to recover.
Read the rest of the article here.

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