Tuesday, April 24, 2018

OPEC Strategy to Drive Up Oil Prices is Working

From Forbes:
In late 2016 OPEC engineered significant oil production cuts in order to address an oversupplied oil market. Global crude oil inventories had reached record highs, and the price of oil had crashed following a disastrous decision by the cartel in 2014 to defend market share. 
In contrast to the 2014 decision, this time OPEC’s strategy is having the desired effect. Over the past year, despite strong U.S. shale production growth, global inventories have steadily declined. According to the latest Oil Market Report from the International Energy Agency, supply is expected to lag demand for the rest of 2018, further depleting inventories: 
International Energy AgencyDemand/Supply balance through 2018. 
In response to declining inventories, global oil prices have steadily increased, breaking through three-year highs last week and again this week. West Texas Intermediate closed last week above $67/bbl, while Brent closed above $72/bbl. These prices are approximately 50% higher than they were last August. 
The latest bullish news for oil prices was a weekly report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing another 1.1 million barrel drop in U.S. crude oil inventories. This now moves crude oil inventories down into the lower half of the range for this time of year.
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