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Thursday, April 7, 2016

One Former Analyst Says Many Pundits Are Off-Base on Oil Price Projections

From Oilprice.com comes these comments from energy investor Brad Beago:
I follow oil pretty closely given our exposure. As such, I get frustrated with many press and news show accounts of the commodity. It gets worse when the pundits and writers should know better. Frequently inexact terminology leads to misconceptions and sometimes I see outright falsehoods that completely distort the truth. 
As a former oil analyst and professional energy investor, I feel compelled to take those to task. As a realist, I see that all markets require a difference of opinion and all investors talk their “book”. For this reason, when Jeff Currie at Goldman Sachs Commodities Group gets on CNBC and opines about future price movements, I give little notice. Jeff is posturing for his customers' and GSs' positions. Jeff can spin the story either way and chooses his statistics accordingly...That's what he is paid very well to do. 
Last week (March 28, 2016), I heard Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter, a trader and investor that I respect and have learned much from, spout an outright falsehood on CNBC. Everyone can have a bad day, but I’ve been hearing various versions of this for months. Dennis said in essence that oil prices could not rise very much because of "all the capped wells that could be brought on line very rapidly". He predicted no more than $42/bbl this year. He estimated that at current strip pricing, you could lock in $45/bbl in 12 months, making large numbers of these "capped" wells profitable. The implication being that at current prices, the market would be rapidly flooded with new oil. 
I'll take the over on price, the under on production and bet all my capital that I'm right. (Oh, I already did that...). Dennis should know better. For fun though, I thought I'd like to take apart his thesis.
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