As promised, I am submitting this article today as the 2nd part of a recent report I published on Seeking Alpha where I argued why crude oil (NYSEARCA:OIL) prices are likely to head much higher in the near future to levels predicted by major banks and analysts being $40-$50 a barrel, a price range also confirmed recently by the Energy Information and Administration (EIA), a top watchdog. I gave several reasons to justify my arguments, including why oil supply/demand balance will be reached in 2016 and why the effect of new Iranian oil to the global supply market will be immaterial. To access Part 1 of my report, you can check the following link:
In this article, I will argue why 16.4% of the global oil production is at risk, and why crude oil may jump to over $100 again soon, levels seen several times in the recent past years in 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014.That's one opinion. Continue reading that article by clicking here.
From Bloomberg comes a different outlook:
Oil prices will stay low for as long as 10 years as Chinese economic growth slows and the U.S. shale industry acts as a cap on any rally, according to the world’s largest independent oil-trading house.
"It’s hard to see a dramatic price increase," Vitol Group BV Chief Executive Officer Ian Taylor told Bloomberg in an interview, saying prices were likely to bounce around a band with a midpoint of $50 a barrel for the next decade.
"We really do imagine a band,” probably between $40 and $60 a barrel, he said. "I can see that band lasting for five to ten years. I think it’s fundamentally different."
The lower boundary would imply little recovery for Brent crude, the global benchmark, which traded for $33.38 a barrel at 10:16 a.m. Monday on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The upper limit would put prices back to the level of July 2015, when the oil industry was already taking measures to weather the crisis.Read more by clicking here.
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