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Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Analyst: Marcellus and Utica Shale to Buck the Trend With Gas Production Growth Next Year

From SNL:
The galloping growth rate of natural gas production in Appalachia will slow in 2016, but the Utica and Marcellus shales will be the only plays in the U.S. with dry gas production growth, Jefferies LLC gas analyst Jonathan Wolff told his clients on Sept. 24. 
Introducing a new 21-basin U.S. gas production model, Jefferies said overall U.S. domestic production will fall by 0.8% in 2016 as non-Marcellus gas and associated gas production volumes decline. 
But in low-cost Appalachia, growth is still in the cards. 
"After rising ~3 Bcf/d per annum over the past 6 years (to ~20 Bcf/d), we expect northeast natural gas output growth to slow in 2016/2017 due to weak local prices and pipeline bottlenecks," Jefferies said. "For 2016, we forecast northeast supply growth of ~1.4 Bcf/d, with a fairly equal split between the Marcellus and Utica developments." 
"Within the model, we have PA production rising ~0.5 Bcf/d between now and year-end (largely from de-bottlenecks in NE PA), with an additional 0.5 Bcf/d growth next year," Jefferies said. "Production in the southwest part of the state should be fairly flat through at least 1Q given a limited completion schedule."
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