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Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Rebound in Oil Prices Will be Short-Lived, Report Says

From Oilprice.com:
A lot of people have got very excited as the price of WTI has bounced back from the lows reached a few months ago. If oil fails to break and hold above $62 this time around, however, their enthusiasm could well be misplaced, as the fundamental factors that caused the price decline in the first instance are still in place. 
That, combined with the technical importance of this challenge of the resistance, makes a drop back below $50 look more likely than a continued rally. When short-term technical indicators and long-term fundamentals both suggest a move in the same direction, as is the case here, investors are well advised to pay attention. 
In the short term, as the above 3 month chart clearly shows, the $62 resistance level that we are approaching again has enormous significance. Most traders will tell you that the third attempt at a support or resistance level is the most important, and the reason for that is also clear on the chart.

The first time WTI tested $62 it dropped back to around $60 when momentum reversed. Then, a few weeks later, failure to break through led to a more pronounced retreat, back down to around $58. Each failure to break above a resistance point usually results in a bigger correction back the other way, so failure on the third try would likely be followed by a drop to $55-56, making another attempt far less manageable. From there the combative nature of traders would make a re-test of the January lows more likely.
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